AI Has a 50% Chance of Beating Human Intelligence in the Next 45 Years
Science & Tech / /
A recent report predicts that in the near future AI would surpass human intelligence and would take over every job. Therefore, the time to prepare for ascendancy of AI is now.
Katja Grace, a researchet at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute together with a team of experts surveyed 1,634 of the most influence artificial intelligence researchers around the world, asking them about their opinion on when the AI and the intelligent machines will surpass human intelligence in a variety of contexts. According to the respond of 352 of the experts, the team calculated median responses and published the results of the probe.
Experts predictions are that by the next decade, AI will outperform humans in tasks like translating languages (by 2024), writing high school essays (by 2026), driving trucks (by 2027) and working in retail (by 2031). Further on experts agreed that other tasks such as writing a bestseller (2049) or carrying out surgeries (2053) would also be influenced by AI.
In 2015 experts predicted that AI would not surpass humans at Go at least until 2027 — but that is already happened. Generally, this suggests that their predictions may have been far too conservative when it comes to AI.
However, even if we go with the estimates the experts provided, there is a 50% chance that in the following 45 years AI will surpass human intelligence in all segments. AI experts from Asia predict it will happen in 30 years, while AI researchers in America are pessimistic thinking it will not happen in the next 74 years.
Regardless of the estimations, the conclusion is we are not left with much time before AI takes any job we cab imagine right now. This means that it is right now the time to address the potential fallout from this change to the culture and economy. Many countries have already started to prepare for the automation age by investing in training and affordable education.
Many private startups are also planning a Universal Basic Income (UBI) programs.. Various tech leaders such as Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk have already supported the UBI in the US., and find it is as the only possible future in light of automation.
Even though there is no generally acceptable state about how to prepare for the rise of AI, there is no reasonable doubt that it is now the time to begin taking action.